{"id":2253737,"date":"2024-11-11T16:15:31","date_gmt":"2024-11-11T15:15:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/?p=2253737"},"modified":"2024-11-11T16:03:36","modified_gmt":"2024-11-11T15:03:36","slug":"inflacio-novekedes-euro-forint-arfolyam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/inflacio-novekedes-euro-forint-arfolyam\/","title":{"rendered":"Maradhat a 400 f\u00f6l\u00f6tti eur\u00f3, v\u00e1gtat\u00f3 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val sz\u00e1molhatunk"},"content":{"rendered":"

Okt\u00f3berben 3,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val kalkul\u00e1ltak a szak\u00e9rt\u0151k, ami decemberre ak\u00e1r egy eg\u00e9sz sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal megemelkedhet, \u00edrj a Portfolio<\/a>. Azt egyel\u0151re nem l\u00e1tni, hogy a forintgyeng\u00fcl\u00e9snek milyen er\u0151s hat\u00e1sa lesz majd a magyar \u00e1rakra.<\/p>\n

Gyorsan n\u00f6vekszik<\/h2>\n

Szeptemberben a jegybank \u00e1ltal \u00e1h\u00edtott 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kkent<\/a> az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 Magyarorsz\u00e1gon. Az \u00f6r\u00f6m r\u00f6vid \u00e9let\u0171nek bizonyult: okt\u00f3berre m\u00e1r 3,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val sz\u00e1moltak, ami az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re 4,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra is emelkedhet.<\/strong><\/p>\n

„A gyorsul\u00e1s m\u00f6g\u00f6tt k\u00e9t f\u0151 t\u00e9nyez\u0151 h\u00faz\u00f3dik” \u2013 nyilatkozta Virov\u00e1cz P\u00e9ter<\/strong>, az ING vezet\u0151 elemz\u0151je a Portfoli\u00f3nak. „Egyr\u00e9szt a tavalyi \u00e9v alacsony b\u00e1zisa, m\u00e1sr\u00e9szt pedig egy ism\u00e9telten jelent\u0151sebb egyhavi \u00e1t\u00e1raz\u00e1s.” A tavalyi \u00e9v m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9nek alacsony b\u00e1zis\u00e1nak t\u00f6bb oka is van: a forint visszaer\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9se, az energia\u00e1rak korrig\u00e1l\u00e1sa, az \u00e9lelmiszer-\u00e1rrobban\u00e1s ut\u00e1ni stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1s, illetve a recesszi\u00f3s gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6rnyezet. T\u00f6bbek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a minim\u00e1lb\u00e9r tervezett, 12 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6vel\u00e9se is hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1shoz. <\/p>\n

\"\"
Fot\u00f3: Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Szak\u00e9rt\u0151k szerint decemberig egyre er\u0151s\u00f6d\u0151 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1sra sz\u00e1m\u00edthatunk, \u00e9s 2024-ben tov\u00e1bbi \u00e1rn\u00f6veked\u00e9si kock\u00e1zatokkal is sz\u00e1molnunk kell. Az MBH Elemz\u00e9si Centrum<\/strong> emelte j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9t 3,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 3,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra –  legink\u00e1bb a forint k\u00f6zelm\u00faltban l\u00e1tott gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9se miatt, ami ut\u00e1n v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an nem fog m\u00e1r tart\u00f3san 400 al\u00e1 visszabukni az EUR\/HUF devizap\u00e1r -, m\u00edg az Unicredit<\/strong> elemz\u0151je, Becsey Zsolt<\/strong>, 4,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos szintet j\u00f3sol.<\/p>\n

A maginfl\u00e1ci\u00f3 ak\u00e1r 5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6zel\u00e9ben is stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dhat 2025 k\u00f6zep\u00e9ig.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Amennyiben a forintra nehezed\u0151 elad\u00f3i nyom\u00e1s nem enyh\u00fcl, az MNB<\/strong> ak\u00e1r kamatemel\u00e9sre is r\u00e1k\u00e9nyszer\u00fclhet a forint v\u00e9delme \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben, figyelmeztet a Portfolio. „A forintgyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s (\u00e9s ennek infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kock\u00e1zatai) miatt felvet\u0151dik a k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy meddig v\u00e1r a Magyar Nemzeti Bank a beavatkoz\u00e1ssal” \u2013 fogalmazott Virov\u00e1cz. <\/p>\n

A jelenlegi monet\u00e1ris strat\u00e9gi\u00e1t figyelve v\u00e9lhet\u0151en a jegybank kiv\u00e1r addig, am\u00edg el\u00fcl az els\u0151 sokkhat\u00e1s: a d\u00f6nt\u00e9shozatal a novemberi kamatd\u00f6nt\u0151 \u00fcl\u00e9sen v\u00e1rhat\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n\t
\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n\t
\n\t\tEz is \u00e9rdekelhet:<\/span>\n\t\t

\n\t\t\tSokkol\u00f3 m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben n\u0151tt a gy\u00fcm\u00f6lcs \u00e9s a z\u00f6lds\u00e9g \u00e1ra<\/a>\n\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\tElolvasom<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Okt\u00f3bert\u0151l kezdve gyorsan n\u00f6vekszik az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3: decemberben ak\u00e1r 4,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal sz\u00e1molhatunk. Azzal a gondolattal is bar\u00e1tkozni kell, hogy az eur\u00f3 \u00e1ra v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an tart\u00f3san 400 forint f\u00f6l\u00f6tt marad.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":2253738,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8180],"tags":[2481,3719,10159],"class_list":["post-2253737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trending","tag-euro","tag-inflacio","tag-novekedes"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2253737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/63"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2253737"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2253737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2253748,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2253737\/revisions\/2253748"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2253738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2253737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2253737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startlap.hu\/vasarlas\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2253737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}